Intelligence analyst's approach to analysis

Some interesting notes of how an CIA/FBI analysts approach analyzing data to brief the White House. Phillip Mudd's insights on how to get "decision advantage" can be found in his book The Head Game. Here's what I found to be most useful (Appendix B)

Think about those receiving your analysis.

- What is the decision maker trying to accomplish?

- How can I limit uncertainty for the decision maker?

- Am I trying to predict or narrowing the problem to make it more managable?

- Does it reflect the decision maker's need or what I'm interested in?

- Am I trying to explain or defend?

Questions / What to analyze

- How to summarize the question to only 1 dependent clause - and useful?

- How can I avoid a yes / no question?

- What are the drivers / variables analyzed in the question, their measures and quality?

- What are the data gaps?

- Are they S.M.A.R.T?

* We always know less than we think we know

* All analysts have bias: - Availability Bias

- Sampling Bias / Anecdote Bias / Personal Observation

- Halo Effect

- Superiority Bias

- Anchoring Bias

- Variable Bias

- Predictive Bias

- Confirmation Bias

- Reasonable-Man Bias

- Reverting-To-The-Mean Bias

Here's Philip Mudd's website:

https://www.philmudd.com/